Royler's UFC Picks, 8/21

[Royler]

Guys,

Thought I'd throw my picks out there for the sake of continuity. As always, bet with your head and not over it. The numbers given are just an average among the major books offering lines on the fights. I'm sure they're all over the place by now. Should be a good show.

Jhun/Lytle
This is a pretty even contest, with Jhun making his UFC debut and Lytle coming off of a TKO win over the mediocre Tiki. Jhun was so hungry for a UFC shot that he was planning on making his 185 lb. debut against Lawler, but Lawler's hand injury forced a cancellation. Now Jhun is back in his usual welterweight class and bookmakers don't seem to be giving him a lot of respect.

I like Jhun to keep pace with Lytle in what is likely going to be a decision finish: Lytle has never been stopped inside the distance in over 25 fights, while Jhun has gone all the way in his past five.
Jhun +170
OV 2 -150

Doerkson/Riggs
Tough fight to call between two rookies I haven't yet seen fight. There's some value in underdog Riggs, who can really slug it out. Pass.

Thomson/Edwards
Lightweight prelim fight: Thomson will control position and won't get caught on the feet.
Thomson -110

Eilers/Kyle
Two heavy-handed heavyweights will come in to brawl: someone is getting KOed, and quick. Eilers should be able to take any punishment dished out by Kyle and reciprocate. Kyle is not known for having a huge heart.
Eilers -150

Diaz/Parisyan
Two tough, crafy welterweights. Diaz KOed Robbie Lawler back in April (as a +300 'dog: Thanks, Joey), a huge feat considering his slight frame and underrated stand-up ability. He'll be able to batter Parisyan around standing, but the Judo man will look to get a tie-up and send them sailing to the ground. I don't see Diaz - a Cesar Gracie standout - getting subbed, leaving a potentially stalled ground game giving the overall advantage to skilled striker Diaz.
Diaz -135

Terrell/Lindland
It's bad business to bet against a wrestler. It's even worse business to bet against an Olympic silver medallist. All things considered, UFC rookie Terrell is a justifiable underdog. Thing is, he's a better stand-up fighter than Lindland, who will look to take this fight to the mat. Up against Phil Baroni, there's no cause for worry. Against Terrell, he might have a problem. Terrell is very good from his back and could pose a significant submission threat.

Buh-buh-but...that's what everyone said about Niko Vitale, and look what happened to him. Lindland is the uncrowned 185 lb. champ. His line dropped when Terrell came in looking ripped, but this isn't bodybuilding. Matt will ride this guy to a decision or stoppage. Bet against Team Quest and you'll be broke faster than if you got married.
Lindland -140

Liddell/White
Little chance for White to win against the bigger, stronger, better Liddell. I never say "no chance" because Danny Williams, Buster Douglas, and Puerto Rico will come along to humble you in a hurry. Nothing is ever a "lock," but Liddell comes the closest out of anyone on the card. I'd peg this as an easy distance fight, but apparently Liddell wants to KO him for some vague reason. I don't think he'll be able to. He also looked a little soft at the weigh-in.
No Play

Belfort/Couture
My early lean was on Belfort: he's been training seriously and looked sharp in their January non-fight. And though I respect Randy, he's 41 and age is more than just a number. Belfort is the fastest striker he's ever had to face, and their '97 fight means nothing: Vitor came in heavy and distracted.

But I've settled on the old warhorse in Couture: Belfort was moody, sullen and distracted in his post-weigh-in interview, and Vegas word is that he's been like that the entire time. The fight game is 90% mental, gang, and if you're looking at the floor and mumbling when you should be looking like you're headed for war, something's wrong. Ortiz gave off the same "I'm scared shitless" vibe before the Liddell bout. Look for Couture to control the clinch with ease and dish out a lot of punishment on the mat. Couture was all smiles after 25 minutes with Ortiz less than a year ago, so cardio shouldn't be a factor. And he's never been anything less than 100% mentally.
Couture -150

To summarize...strongest leans in italics...

Jhun +170
Jhun/Lytle OV 2 -150
Thomson -110
Eilers -150
Diaz -135
Lindland -140
Couture -150

Chalk city, but I'm not a "value" bettor. I concern myself with who I think is going to win, period. A turd on sale is still a turd. Good luck to all.

 

[sphincter]

going to parlay lindland and liddell....

and i,too,will go against the money with "old man" couture...i think the 1st half of the 1st round will be dangerous...i believe that belfort will come out fast again....hopefully,couture realizes this also....

where`d you find the distance props?

g.l.

 

[Royler]

"where`d you find the distance props?"

Up at MVP and Sportsbook. Also BetRoyal. Gl.

 

[GreenDoberman]

I agree on the Lindland and Couture bets.
Think Lindland will control his bout and feel there is value in Couture because of the "freak" loss last time.

 

[Royler]

Lots and lots of late money coming in on Terrell...fight is a pick in some outs. Very strange movement. If people are betting based on his weigh-in appearance, they're silly...everyone has an eight-pack when they're dehydrated.

If it's something else...be careful. Haven't seen a line drop like this. Ever.

 

[sphincter]

i don`t wager much on this stuff....and maybe i`m a skeptic,but,i`d be more worried if the line was moving in our favor....

if couture,lindland and thomson all lose,the books will take a bath...

it`s my experience that that is an unusual occurence...

but,anything can happen....

i`ll ride the royler train....for a couple bucks...just a couple...lol

g.l.

 

[SoCalBaseball]

Lindland should be solid pick. My guys in Vegas said there is nothing unusual going on that they can see, but you have to wonder. Someone must know something. This is without a doubt the strangest line movement I have ever seen on a fight like this. I took Lindland at -132 and thought that without a doubt it was the best play on the board. We'll have to see what happens. This card better kick ass. UFC has been seriously going downhill in the last two years and is nothing more than a AA version of Pride at this point.

 

[sphincter]

think i`ll stick with boxing...lol....always a bad idea to put money down in unfamiliar territory....

a loser with thomson...a winner with eilers....a loser in my lindland/liddell parlay...

can still only lose juice if couture can hit....

c`mon ole` man.....

 

[Royler]

Couture makes idiots out of more naysayers...the man literally isn't human. At 41, he's beaten three of the most dangerous LHW in the world without being in trouble for even one second. Greatest fighter in the history of the sport.

But this shit is getting harder to handicap, fellas...sorry if I let anyone down. Thomson was doing what he was supposed to - outmuscling Edwards - but the two basically squared off blind and threw their best shot. Edwards landed, Thomson didn't.

Diaz lost a close, close decision to Parisyan.

The line movement on Terrell was a fair warning. This is why I bet as close to post time as possible. Too many X factors.

Next time I'll try and post just the two or three strongest plays on the card.

 

[sphincter]

no prob,bro......happy to split.....

couture is amazing at lt heavy.....

silva would be a very tough nut to crack,though....i have to agree with so cal....overall,pride is much stronger than ufc....

particularly at the higher weights....

thanks for posting,though...we didn`t get as much of a response as i expected...glad you are willing to give some info...

appreciated...

 

[SoCalBaseball]

This "is" extremely hard to handicap. One thing that seems to stand out as far as trends are concerned in the UFC is that if you take all the dogs you will come out in the long run (provided you get them at good prices). It is almost impossible to discet it fight by fight and make heads or tails of anything, and least from a betting angle. Royler seems to have a good grasp of the fighters and he went 1-7 by playing all but one favorites and losing all his stronger plays. I picked Lindland and it is the first time I have ever lost a bet in UFC. However, the only other times I've ever bet this stuff is when Tank Abbott made his last comeback (against Kimo) and never thought much him as a fighter so I bet against him; and I made some money on the Shamrock/Ortiz fight because I personally thought (and still think) that Shamrock is done... at least against stiff competition. Next time I bet on these things I'm going to wait for a "novetly" fight like the ones I won before and take a chance at those. For excitement though, I have to say that this card was there best one in a while. The Diaz/Parisyan fight was as good of fight I've seem on one of these Zuffa cards in a long time.

 

[sphincter]

so cal....when these things come around again in october,don`t be a stranger....always happy to get some divergent points of view....

and if you follow boxing,this is a fairly solid board with a core group of handicapppers that are fairly consistent....always happy to get another opinion in the mix....

g.l.

 

[franks.]

I really don't know who to thank here for
the Couture win, probably Royler and GD
me thinks. Just read all the posts and seemed
like Randy was the ticket. Thanks again.

 

[Royler]

Pride has this weird "mystique" that seems to have people believing that their fighters are on another level from the UFC.

Simply not true. UFC disappointment Ricco Rodriguez went over there and basically stalemated their 2nd best heavyweight in Antonio Nogueira, losing a bogus decision; Tito Ortiz and Vitor Belfort both flattened their monster in Vanderlei Silva.

Quinton Jackson trained with Ortiz regularly and fessed that he would never fight him because he'd be handled.

I'm very unimpressed with Silva. A quarter of his wins came against fighters with losing records; he fights Japanese that belong at 185; his biggest win in years was against Jackson, who had just gone to war with Liddell two hours prior.

It's very easy to build a star when you feed him midgets and exhausted fighters.

I will be taking Jackson for the limit if they follow through with plans for a rematch on Halloween. If the ref stands them up prematurely again, I'll bill DSE for the loss.

 

[SoCalBaseball]

Though I truly respect your opinion (Royler) I personally believe that Pride "is" quite a better show than the UFC all in all. The main problem with the UFC I believe is money. The Zuffa's are just too damn cheap and Pride has a ton more money and much more fan intrest in Japan than here. Your point about Ricco was a good one and the bottom line is "where did that fight take place"? In Japan where most the good fights take place. I do agree that UFC has the potential to put out just as good a show and as good of fighters as Pride does. They also have done a very good job of recruiting a great young crop of up and comers. The problem is that a good majority of the fighters that turn out good will end up defecting to Pride.

A good example of this is when I was in Vegas on the UFC card "after" the BJ Penn vs. Jens Pulver title fight. If you remember that was a fight for the ages and at that time I thought if UFC keeps this up they have a good chance of surpassing Pride. I talked to Jens at the MGM. He was there to support Pat for his fight that night. I'm from Iowa (originally, proud to say California now) and have some connections in the Militich camp. I talked with Jens for quite a while that night. I was so happy for him and told him I couldn't wait for his first title defense and asked him if he had any ideas who it would be against and when. He tried to dodge the question and though it is hard to explain, I knew that he was done with the UFC. The next week I got the info that the Zuffa's weren't going to give him a pay raise and that he refused to fight. Subsequently they stripped his title and that was that. It was a terrible tragedy. I truly believe Jens took it personally and has not been the same fighter since, having mixed results in the smaller Japan and US shows. A similar situation could be going on now with BJ Penn.

Though it is true some situations have occured like the one you mentioned with Ricco, I think that far more UFC fighters have failed in Japan than succeeded (at least in the last 5 years or so). Luckily for the Zuffa's, I feel this last card was their best one in a long time and I hope they build on it. However, a fight like Silva/Couture would almost certainly go down in Japan if at all. I really think Silva would love to fight him, but the Zuffa's will be offering either high 5 digit or low 6 digit paychecks to the fighters and Pride would almost certainly triple or quadruple those figures. I want UFC to succeed. It is easy for me to go there and we get to see the fights live (unless I'm in Japan when one is going on... my wife is from Kyoto).

I'm also very disappointed at the proposed main event for the next UFC. Tito (coming off two losses) vs. Metzger (a Pride cast off). UFC better come up with a better fight than that or at least round out the bill with some better fights, or we're going to get stuck with more Tank Abbott's and other shitty has beens being keystone fighters in the circuit.

 

[Royler]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>The Zuffa's are just too damn cheap and Pride has a ton more money and much more fan intrest in Japan than here. Your point about Ricco was a good one and the bottom line is "where did that fight take place"? In Japan where most the good fights take place. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

So Cal,

I think there's a difference between "cheap" and "sensible." As you just said, the market for MMA in Japan is much bigger than it is in the States. Accordingly, the Yakuz - sorry, DSE - can afford to pay their fighters a higher wage.

The US market can't bear a half-dozen fighters on the card making a six-figure salary. It's not being "cheap" if the risk/reward ratio makes no economic sense.

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>A good example of this is when I was in Vegas on the UFC card "after" the BJ Penn vs. Jens Pulver title fight. If you remember that was a fight for the ages and at that time I thought if UFC keeps this up they have a good chance of surpassing Pride. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Here is the bottom line. Pulver was offered a salary increase, just as all fighters are when winning. He didn't feel it was enough. Jens Pulver makes not a single dent in either buyrates or live gate receipts. If anything, he hurt the promotion with his fighting style. Paying him more to do less makes no sense whatsoever.

Jens thought he could make more money in Japan, and so he did his thing. He's had mixed results. Bustamante thought the grass was greener elsewhere. Now he's barely being talked about.

Pulver, like it or not, is responsible for a lot of boos emenating from crowds during his fights. The Hallman fight was terrible; the Uno and Penn fights were plodding. This is like having an employee who pisses off customers asking for a pay raise. What are you going to tell him?

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I'm also very disappointed at the proposed main event for the next UFC. Tito (coming off two losses) vs. Metzger (a Pride cast off). UFC better come up with a better fight than that or at least round out the bill with some better fights, or we're going to get stuck with more Tank Abbott's and other shitty has beens being keystone fighters in the circuit. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Agree 100% here. Tito is a dolt who is now reveling in his "villain" persona because he knows the crowd has turned against him. It's like the fat kid making jokes about his weight before anyone else does. He will destroy Mezger and, IMO, that brings him not one step closer to title contention.

Unfortunately for the UFC, it's too soon to have Randy fight again, Shamrock is hurt, and this recent card was fairly stacked. The undercard does promise some interesting fights:

Lawler Vs. Tanner

Hughes vs. St. Pierre

Trigg Vs. Verissimo

 

[RDavis]

Ortiz beat Silva in classic lay-n-pray mode. With the new stand-up rules in both organizations due to inactivity and Silva's obvious improvement since that time, he would clean Tito's clock if they fought now in either Pride or UFC.

And if you think Belfort would beat Silva at this point in time...I highly doubt it. All the credit to Vitor in their first match, but once again, Silva has greatly improved since then while Belfort isn't nearly the same fighter he once was.

Say what you want about Silva's comp, but he's beaten everyone who Pride has thrown in front of him, and many of those are quality wins.

Decisive win over Henderson. Destroyed Saku three times (unfortunately), twice while Sak was still at his best. Wasted Tamura and Kanehara who are both very solid fighters. Knocked out Kondo who hadn't been knocked out in sixty previous fights and who had fought much bigger fightes than Silva (Barnett, Schilt) and done very well against them. Beat (if there were judges) Cro-Cop in a match that was more geared towards Cro-Cop striking. Though the stand-up was questionable, still ended-up beat the hell out of Rampage and I don't see much changing in their rematch.

Overall, no matter how you slice it...smaller opponents, not fighting top fighters every time out, etc., those these arguments do have some merit to them, bottom line he is 17-0-1 in Pride and has destroyed basically everyone fighter put in front of him, many of which have been of the high quality variety.

I never was a big fan of his, especially since he started his Sak destruction, but over the past two years I've grown to greatly appreciate how good of a fighter he is and certainly respect him as much as any MMA fighter in the world.

 

[SoCalBaseball]

Good points (Royler and Davis). I do understand the economic sensibility of why the UFC has to pay their fighers what they do, as I stated before Pride just has a ton more money. I just think they need to get creative and come up with some other ways to promote the sport if they want it to grow. Sure it won't be easy and I sure as hell don't have the answers, but you have to take a chance and throw some money into the thing if you want it to grow. The Zuffa's have been about making money from the beginning and I can respect them for that. However, it will always keep them behind the eightball and until the do something about it Pride will always have them in their rear view mirror. At the UFC's I've attended over the last couple of years the crowds have dwindled slightly (all in all; some cards have sold better than others), and I've heard that their pay-per-view gate hasn't been what they would like it to be lately either.

Also, I certainly wouldn't want to get into any kind of debate about Pulver's fighting style. It is an aquired taste, but I really happened to like it (when he was on his game). He had a real "Rocky" type quality and the last big fight he had (the Penn fight), the crowd certainly wasn't booing him... they were loving it. I can't really disagree with about wether or not his fighting style would have made for good viewing in the long run, I would like to think it could have, but we'll never really know. Also, according to my reports, the raise he was offered (in my last post I should have said a "decent" pay raise, not no raise at all - my bad) would still have given him a salary that was "half" of Couture's or Tito's (I think I heard $25,000 a fight). He should have been at least offered a salary that was, let's say, around $40,000 a fight for as long as he could have held his title. I totally believe Pulver/Penn rematch would have been a great selling fight for UFC.

Also, I didn't see the list of proposed fights for the next UFC yet until this post. The Trigg/Verissimo fight is something I am looking forward to and the Lawler/Tanner fight should be good. A big question mark is which Hughes will show up for the Hughes/St. Pierre match. All in all looks pretty interesting and I personally feel that any of those three matches (at least for me) are more intriguing than the main event

And RDavis, you basically said exactally what I feel about Silva, don't even really need to ad to that.